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RESEARCH ARTICLE
Year : 2018  |  Volume : 5  |  Issue : 1  |  Page : 28-38

Estimation of epidemiological parameters for historicalm ship outbreaks of influenza


1 National Institute of Virology, Pashan, Pune – 411021; Centre of Modelling and Simulation, Savitribai Phule Pune University, Pune – 411007, Maharashtra, India
2 Centre of Modelling and Simulation, Savitribai Phule Pune University, Pune – 411007, Maharashtra, India
3 National Institute of Virology, Pashan, Pune – 411021, Maharashtra, India

Correspondence Address:
Pratip Shil
Scientist ‘C’, National Institute of Virology, 130/1 Sus Road, Pune – 411021, Maharashtra
India
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Source of Support: None, Conflict of Interest: None


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Periodic Influenza epidemics are a cause of concern world-wide due to heavy burden of disease consequently leading to economic distress mortality. In modern era, rapid international travel between populations makes the impact of air-borne diseases like Influenza more dramatic, as observed in the last pandemic due to Swine origin Influenza A/H1N1 2009. Though transmission of Influenza in humans has been studied in various settings, studies on ship outbreaks are sparse. The current research aims to analyze the historical Influenza outbreaks on sailing ships. Study revealed the pattern of transmission in isolated population and estimates the epidemiological parameters viz. basic reproduction number (R0), epidemic growth rate (r), transmission rate (β). High clustering lead to intense transmission with 0 high value of basic reproductive number, R0. Also, the study brought to light the limitations of analyzing 0 historical data.


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